2026 Creator M&A Outlook: Entering the “Sophomore Year”
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INTRODUCTION
Welcome to RockWater’s annual Creator M&A Outlook.
If 2025 was the freshman year of the recovery—where “we’re back” was the rallying cry—2026 is the sophomore year.
The industry is maturing, the grades matter, and the market is rationalizing. In the analysis below, we break down the six critical themes defining this new era of industrialization; from reframing the creator asset class, and the private equity race to consolidate talent managers, to the bifurcation of the social services stack, and the arrival of audited financial metrics that are finally closing the bid-ask spread.
At RockWater, we don’t just observe these trends; we engineer the deals that drive them.
As the leading M&A and strategy advisory firm for the creator economy and social / audio agencies, we help founders and investors navigate this maturing landscape to find the right exit or capital partner. From advising on Feedfeed’s recent sale to People Inc. or the sale of a social publisher to a SE Asia family office (deal closed the day after Christmas), to guiding strategy for global media entities, we serve as the trusted strategic partners to the leaders defining the next stage of the industry’s growth.
If you’re looking to sell, buy, or build in 2026, DM us. You can see our client wins on our RockWater Website, and get our real-time deal analysis by following me on LinkedIn.
Now, let’s look at the capital markets roadmap for the year ahead.
Theme 1: From Experiment to Asset Class (The Check-Writers Have Changed)
The capital stack is evolving because the data is undeniable. The creator economy is on track to hit $530 billion by 2030. We’re past the experimental phase, and officially in the mainstream.
In 2025, a new tier of buyers entered the mix: legacy media (fighting for survival), B2B software firms (needing modern tools), and tech aggregators. The market has grown up, and the check-writers have changed. The creator economy is no longer just a VC bet or speculative undertaking — it’s a critical asset class and a corporate imperative.
Evidence:
- Bending Spoons buys Vimeo for $1.38B (deal analysis) – A large take-private deal proving that even “legacy” creator tools are being rolled up by tech aggregators.
- Pinterest buys tvScientific (deal analysis) – A social discovery platform buying CTV infrastructure to close the loop between mobile intent and living room scale.
- Fox’s deal spree: Acquired audio drama company Meet Cute (deal analysis), creator sales / D2C agency Red Seat Ventures (deal analysis), and invested in Whalar’s Lighthouse (deal analysis) as well as microdrama platform Holywater. Fox is actively assembling a portfolio of modern media assets.
- People Inc. buys Feedfeed (deal analysis) – RockWater Client Win: Validating that legacy institutional buyers want social-native assets.
- Publicis pays $150M for Captiv8 (deal analysis) – A holding company buying the tech stack and creator network to fortify its influencer marketing business.
- Paramount buys The Free Press for $150M (deal analysis): Proves that legacy studios now view creator-led journalism as a core strategic asset, rather than just a digital experiment.
- MLB buys stake in Jomboy (deal analysis): Ends the “copyright strike era,” replacing litigation with an equity partnership that aligns rights holders with the creators driving the next generation of viewership.
2026 Prediction: The FOMO Re-Entry for Capital Allocators.
A creator economy strategy is now existential. In 2026, the buyer pool will expand into unexpected corners: gig platforms (Fiverr/Upwork pivoting to creator tools), the cfo stack (fintech and legacy banks capturing new depositors), model trainers (AI labs seeking data stockpiles), b2b commerce infrastructure (Shopify ecosystem), political organizations who seek influence for midterm elections, and more.
Furthermore, buyers who hesitated between 2024 and 2025 will re-enter the market aggressively, realizing that the risk of falling permanently behind outweighs the pain of overpaying.
Theme 2: Talent is King (The Race to be Gatekeeper to the Gatekeepers)
Private equity is running its billion-dollar Hollywood playbook again—but this time, on the creator economy. After spending the last decade consolidating traditional talent agencies (e.g., TPG selling CAA for $7B), financial sponsors have realized that creator management is the new high-growth asset class.
The industry remains highly fragmented, but the migration of ad dollars and consumer attention to social video is forcing a change. We’re seeing a race to become the “gatekeeper to the gatekeepers” i.e. creator personalities command modern audiences, and talent managers hold the keys to the creators.
The deal activity here is the most aggressive we’ve seen across the industry, as buyers look to roll up independent managers into scaled platforms that can command higher multiples and offer diversified services.
Crucially, this demand is expanding beyond traditional representation into talent empowerment. Buyers are placing a premium on the engines that help creators monetize, such as brand partnership teams, elearning and D2C agencies, and content localization and syndication services. These businesses are now viewed as essential infrastructure for scaling and diversifying creator IP and revenues, and building direct-to-consumer relationships.
Evidence:
- GameSquare buys Click Management for $8.5M (deal analysis) – Validation of the global scale thesis, expanding reach into gaming and Australia.
- Propagate buys Parker Management (deal analysis) – A traditional production powerhouse acquiring digital talent reps to control the modern IP supply chain.
- Initial Group buys Silver Tribe Media (deal analysis) – TPG-backed Initial Group (new owner of Untitled & Grandview) bought this sports-centric digital production and sales shop to launch Initial Digital. A signal that modern entertainment rollups seek to also acquire digital infrastructure.
- Sienna Private Equity buys Independent Talent Group – French private equity firm Sienna acquired a majority stake in the UK’s leading talent agency at a reported $100M+ valuation. Highlights that European capital is also funding buy-and-build strategies to consolidate the fragmented European talent market.
- Carlyle invests in 3 Arts (deal analysis) – Smart money isn’t just betting on digital; they’re doubling down on the enduring power of traditional literary management and production aka the “engine” of Hollywood.
- Fixated raises $63M (deal analysis) – The rise of the hybrid model: combining talent management and content studio and syndication services.
- Linguana raises $8.5M – Raised seed funding to scale multilingual YouTube channels for content creators worldwide—via AI and human oversight, they power global reach with zero upfront cost and a revenue-share model.
2026 Prediction: Indie Squeeze, Big Swings, and the Infrastructure Premium
The top of the market will continue to consolidate; meaning that scaled independent managers will be rare, in-demand assets. In 2026, the standouts will deny acquisition offers to take “big swings”—mergers of equals or large growth equity rounds to increase scale and financial wherewithal, and become buyers themselves. In turn, positioning themselves for a larger, albeit riskier, future exit.
Talent reps that simply forward emails will lose value, as bare bones services won’t cut it in the modern talent landscape. Those that offer true 360 strategy services, and additional services like in-house production and IP ownership alongside their talent clients, will command the highest valuation multiples.
It’s getting harder to be a subscale operator, but ambitious up-and-coming reps will always find exciting pockets of opportunity. Particularly as the niche-ification of content continues.
Finally, expect a valuation premium for monetization infrastructure. We predict aggressive bidding for companies that provide the ‘picks and shovels’ for proven creator revenue and audience growth. We’re already seeing this firsthand with active mandates we’ve just brought to market; buyers are eager for assets that empower creators to scale beyond their primary platforms.
Theme 3: The New Social Services Stack (Finding the Wedge into Brand Dollars)
Modern brand marketers have moved beyond buying simple influencer posts. They now demand a full “social services stack”—spanning creative strategy, performance, offline activation, and workflow automation.
For agency CEOs, the game has changed. To capture a larger share of the brand’s wallet, they need a strategic wedge—a specific, modern capability that gets them into the P&L and keeps them there.
- The Experience Wedge: Buyers are acquiring event production because offline moments are becoming a new anchor for digital campaigns.
- The Strategy Wedge: Performance shops are buying creative social strategy to own the brand narrative, not just the ad buy.
- The Workflow Wedge: Consolidators are buying social media management (“SMM”) tools to secure recurring revenue and sticky daily workflows.
This creates a divide in the market: services VS infrastructure.
On one side, we have the service roll-up. Diversified agencies and consultancies are acquiring social shops to become the tip of the spear for brand dollars. These are strategic features bolted onto larger P&Ls.
On the other side, we have the “toll booth”. Venture capital is chasing the tech infrastructure that automates the messy middle of the creator economy, and in turn will participate on every single dollar of the $100+ billion of advertiser media shifting to creators. Investors are realizing that while services scale linearly with people, infrastructure scales exponentially with code.
Evidence:
- Night buys Experiential Supply (deal analysis) – The Experience Wedge: Validating that offline production is the new “tip of the spear” to unlock 7-figure digital budgets.
- Agentio raises $40M Series B (deal analysis) – The Toll Booth: Investors paid a premium ($340M valuation) for a platform that automates creator media buying, signaling that the next wave of value creation will come from reducing friction rather than just adding headcount.
- Wpromote buys Giant Spoon (deal analysis) – The Strategy Wedge: A performance marketing giant buying a creative agency to own the full funnel.
- group.one buys SocialPilot for $50M (deal analysis) – The Workflow Wedge: A digital consolidator acquiring best-in-class scheduling tools to own the “operating system” of the social manager.
- Accenture Song buys Superdigital (deal analysis) – The Enterprise Wedge: Global consultancies buying niche social capabilities to modernize their legacy client offerings.
2026 Prediction: Features go to Strategics, Toll Booths go to VCs
We’ll see a clear split in exit paths. Service wedges (agencies, production co’s) will be bought by strategics (holdcos, consultancies) at multiples of EBITDA to plug holes in their service stack. Infrastructure toll booths (adtech, payment rails) will be funded by VCs at 5-15x revenue.
Warning: For every successful tech exit, more than ten will fail. The entry barriers get lower by the day with AI coding tools, and customer distribution is the new point of competitive leverage.
Theme 4: The New Capital Stack for Creator Content (Smart Money Bets on IP)
While the infrastructure of the creator economy is consolidating, a parallel wave of capital is flooding the content layer. In 2025, the investment thesis expanded beyond platforms, service providers, and tools to aggressively target the financing, production, and licensing of creator-led IP.
This capital is fueling new storytelling formats that didn’t exist five years ago—from the explosion of microdramas and vertical storytelling to live creator-owned sporting events.
Crucially, the capital stack driving this market has evolved. The money for premium content is no longer coming from a small cohort, including “mismatched” investors like VCs looking for tech multiples. It’s now coming from:
- Strategics: TV networks and global streaming platforms desperate for younger eyeballs.
- The “Smart” Money: Traditional media funds investing in modern media assets or bolting on social-first companies to modernize legacy investments. Simultaneously, there’s a surge of insider capital—partners at these funds and execs at creator companies writing personal checks, doubling down on the ecosystem they operate in daily.
- Specialists: A new vintage of modern funds dedicated specifically to the creator industry.
We’ve seen cycles of capital flow into this space before—dating back to the first vintage of YouTube MCNs, then the short-lived hype of Vessel and Quibi. But this time feels different.
Today, the sheer scale of social and creator audiences is unprecedented, forcing investors and licensees to make existential bets and finally write checks that match the enormous influence they’re buying. Legacy players see the writing on the wall: to survive, they must bet on creator IP.
The result is a blurring of lines where creators are up-leveling into Hollywood producers, and Hollywood producers are scrambling to build audience marketing engines on social media.
Evidence:
- Tubi Partners with Audiochuck – A multi-year $150M deal for Ashley Flowers’ IP, proving top-tier audio commands video-tier licensing fees.
- Netflix x iHeartMedia video deal – A strategic “windowing” play where Netflix locks up video exclusivity for 14 franchises. By removing these shows from YouTube, Netflix validates that top-tier vodcasts are now premium, subscription-driving IP rather than just free marketing.
- Unicorn Management raises $900k (deal analysis) – Early stage capital for the creator studio model, led by Powerhouse.
- The launch of Further Adventures (deal analysis) – A new content studio launch signaling the rise of independent, creator-focused production houses.
- Good Good Golf raises $45M (deal analysis): Led by Creator Sports Capital and Peyton Manning’s Omaha Productions, validating the creator league model.
- A24 greenlit The Backrooms, a horror film directed by VFX YouTuber Kane Parsons. Follows other A24 creator film bets like Talk to Me from the duo behind the RackaRacka channel,
2026 Prediction: The Checkbook Bifurcation and The Hybrid Premium
In 2026, the gap between YouTuber and media company will widen, and capital will choose sides. Large financing rounds will flow exclusively to creator production studios—independent entities that can develop and own IP—but the bar to entry has raised significantly.
The easy money era is over. To unlock these 8-figure checks, creators must professionalize. Investors are no longer betting on buzz or reach; they’re demanding real org charts with distinct business, content, and operations teams. Founders must articulate a clear POV on their unique growth wedge and draw a direct line between the capital ask and investor ROI.
Consequently, we expect a premium for hybrid models—but the definition is expanding. While the manager-producer (talent + studio) is the current favorite, we expect to see new combinations emerge: talent rep x content studio x ad agency x ??. The breakout companies of 2026 will be those that successfully stack these business lines, creating diversified revenue moats that look less like traditional Hollywood and more like next-generation media conglomerates.
Theme 5: The New Creator Ecosystem Emerges (and Leaves the MCN Dream Behind)
For a decade, the industry chased the MCN dream—aggregating thousands of channels to sell ad inventory. It failed because it was a low-margin arbitrage game with little operational value for creators.
In 2025, we saw its successor: the creator ecosystem model.
Unlike MCNs, these new holding companies are not passive aggregators. They’re active operators building a diverse set of services that combine talent management, production studios, venture capital, and proprietary technology under one roof. They don’t just rep talent; they incubate businesses, own the tech stack, and finance the IP. They’re the modern, decentralized version of what traditional Multi-Channel Networks (MCNs) wanted to be but couldn’t execute.
Evidence:
- Steven Barlett’s Flight Group hits $425M Valuation (deal analysis): In October 2025, Steven Bartlett raised a strategic round led by Slow Ventures and Apeiron Investment Group, valuing his holdco at $425M. His goal is to build the “Disney of the Creator Economy,” combining media (FlightStory), ventures (FlightFund), and tech (FlightCast) to capture value at every stage of the creator lifecycle.
- Whalar hits $400M Valuation (deal analysis): Backed by Marc Benioff, Shopify, and Hollywood producer Neal H. Moritz, Whalar wants to prove that a six-pillar ecosystem—spanning everything from an influencer agency and physical creator campuses to a gaming studio and venture arm—commands a premium over traditional agency models.
2026 Prediction: The Battle for the Ecosystem Blueprint.
The industry will race to define the winning strategy for building a creator ecosystem business We expect two distinct playbooks to collide: the organic scale (companies like Flight Story expanding operations) vs. the buy-and-build (aggregators like Initial Group bolting talent / media / digital capabilities onto a flagship core).
The defining question will be: What is the right wedge into the ecosystem model? Is it better to start as a talent rep, a social publisher, an ad agency, or other?
We predict large variance in outcomes. A select few will prove they can operationalize synergy and scale into billion-dollar holding companies. Others will fall into the MCN trap—aggregating low-margin services that generate hype today but fail to grow into their outsized valuations tomorrow.
Theme 6: The Black Box of Dealmaking Opens (Moving from Vibes to Valuation Data)
For the last decade, creator economy investments and M&A were a black box. Valuations were based on buzz and subscriber counts, and financial terms were buried under strict NDAs. But in 2025, the lights turned on.
As I shared in my recent interview with NetInfluencer, “We are moving away from vibes-based valuations to really standardized metrics.” As more public companies entered the fray—from GameSquare to People Inc. to Dotdigital—creator dealmakers finally got a look at the real numbers. We’re now seeing public filings that disclose purchase prices, EBITDA multiples, and earnout structures.
This shift is transformative.
When data becomes public, the asset class becomes priceable. Founders can set realistic expectations, and investors can model returns based on audited benchmarks, not just pitch deck promises. This transparency reduces risk, which ultimately attracts more capital to the sector.
Evidence:
- Public Buyer Disclosures: We saw granular deal terms revealed in acquisitions like GameSquare buying Click Management for $8.5M (deal analysis) and Amaze Holdings buying The Food Channel for $650k (deal analysis). If you look up earnings call transcripts, you can learn more about our client Feedfeed’s sale to People Inc. (deal analysis).
- Sharing of Multiples Data: We published detailed breakdowns of valuation multiples for B2B creator tools, such as group.one (private co) acquiring SocialPilot for $50M (~5.0x ARR) (deal analysis) and Dotdigital (public co) acquiring Social Snowball for $35M (~6.7x Revenue) (deal analysis).
- The Beast Benchmark: The looming prospect of a MrBeast IPO (and the required S-1 filing) will reveal a level of financial data scrutiny never before seen for a scaled creator business. If the IPO is planned for late 2026, expect filings to be released around Q3 of this year.
2026 Prediction: The Bid-Ask Compression
With better data comes faster deal velocity. In 2026, the frustrating bid-ask spread—where a founder wants 20x revenue and a buyer offers 6x EBITDA—will narrow significantly. We’ll all learn faster. With a shared reality on what creator businesses are actually worth, we expect a surge in “lower middle-market” M&A ($10M – $100M deals) as buyers and sellers can finally agree on the math.
CLOSING NOTE
Planning to sell, buy, or build in 2026?
Don’t navigate the “Sophomore Year” without a study guide. At RockWater, we bridge the gap between creative vision and financial rigor, helping founders and investors find the right exit or capital partner. We don’t just observe the market; we help engineer the deals that define it.
DM me to discuss your 2026 strategy.
chris@wearerockwater.com
I’m the founder of RockWater Industries. We do M&A and strategy advisory for creator economy and social / audio agencies. From buy / sell-side M&A and fundraising, to consumer research and go-to-market planning.
DM me on LinkedIn or email me chris@wearerockwater.com
